Crime scene visits by juries Tony Adams Candidate for Bennelong. The 19.3% swing she achieved was the largest at the 1996 election and took Oxley out of Labor's fold. Organiser of the Australian Labor Party State Branch (Qld.) A list of profiles for Candidates A-Z in the Federal Election 2022 Develop Following the 2020 Census, some states may redraw their districts. Results 1983-2019. The pandemic and its effect on Blair might feed back into the overall disillusionment in job-security and prospects. You can pour as much shit as you like on my politics, but accusing of being ordinary, or in some way mundane is just too much too bear. Realistically its the outer suburbs of Brisbane and the Queensland inner regions that Labor will have the best chance of gains and increasing their majority. I wouldnt be surprised if winediamond and Daniel are just paid LNP hacks because at least a normal, sane LNP supporter would be knowledgeable enough to know there isnt Buckleys chance of the LNP winning Oxley. ALP retain. Our 2022 Victories. The Most Interesting Articles, Mysteries and Discoveries. There are certain posters who very obviously just project their own personal biases onto entire electorates and/or do nothing but constant, thinly veiled advocacy as analysis, but given that Labors entire strategy seems to hinge on electoral Bradburyism, I dont see an easy path to victory. Liberal candidate Cameron Thompson came third on primary votes, but overtook the ALP on Nationals preferences and then overtook Hanson on Labor preferences. The teals and Greens seats arent likely going to be won by Labor now they have got them. Even if they werent, they cant do what Howard did in 1998 because sandbagging alone is too much of a risk when youre just hovering at the majority line. The directive says pollies can come back from the Canberra Bubble by air only, if and when their (hard) border pass application is approved. Assessment Betting markets are clearly expecting a Labor tide in Queensland. Morrison leads the preferred PM so he is more popular. The FEC will update its map to reflect the new congressional districts and boundaries once information has been made available from each state. My opinion is that Shayne Neumann will increase his vote, As the LNP candidate here, he is missing in action. Close to 100 seats for LNP Daniel youre kidding yourself or dreaming. Worsteling is a retail worker and research assistant currently studying psychology at the University of Queensland. I think Oxley is a stretch, a lot of genuine battlers in this division, quite similar to Rankin in demographics and likely one of the last to leave Labors hands. J Hogg from 1998 to 2000. Won state majorities. Location: The Division of Oxley consists of: part of the Brisbane City Council, part of the Ipswich City Council, and part of the Logan City Council. I stand by it. Hayden served as Member for Oxley for 27 years. Some candidates subsequently amended their registration forms to reflect new district numbers. Kathleen Irene (Oxley) Wiggins. Couple that with LNP base vote strengthening in more blue collar seats (bigger margins in Forde, Petrie Lindsey and becoming competitive in Blair, Fowler, Werriwa, Lilley) you can see why they might see a long term opportunity in Oxley. Select 'Find your electorate'. You are trying to close the tab or browser. Comparing the validity of O.S. Updated: 21 April 2022 The AEC publishes enrolment statistics on a regular basis to show the number of Australians enrolled nationally, and by state/territory and division. Labor have dominated this area on a state level, and Milton Dick in Oxley is a great member and is very visible across both electorates. 2022 Federal Election Candidates Forum - Oxley | Centenary Chamber Join us as we hear from all the local candidates in the running to be the Federal Member for Oxley at this year's election. Read the story here. Support James. Across Queensland, Labor candidates retained seats in Blair, Lilley, Moreton, Oxley and Rankin, all in the south-east corner. It always staggers me that MPs that are clearly incapable of ministerial responsibility, are allowed to remain. Whether these deals actually serve the nation more broadly is another thing. The LNP managed 52.4% in the north. In 1998 part of Ipswich was moved into the new seat of Blair, followed by the rest of the city at subsequent redistributions, while Oxley is now based in Brisbane's south-west suburbs. @LNP Insider interesting that you flag Oxley as a location where LNP might have genuine intent in competing. DEMOGRAPHICS. Labor supposedly has two fabulous senators, Murray Watt, & Anthony Chisolm. The LNP are basically aiming to hold their own seats rather than win any Labor .Little effort going into contesting Blair,Lilley or Moreton by the LNP. Those that entered retirement and were now well off, were generally no longer animated by issues of job-security or industrial relations, but instead became fixated on their retirement, investment portfolio and inheritance. Some candidates may subsequently amend their registration forms to reflect new district numbers. Ipswich, particularly its South West fringes have been at the center of QLDs rapid population growth since 2019. The seat was held by the Liberal Party until 2007, when the ALP won. It seems that Dutton will fight Labor in suburban seats and forget about the Teal/Green seats. Oxley. With a rare QLD leader of the ALP, I wasnt thinking 2013 was a high water mark for LNP in QLD, but it was in NSW. Named in honour of John Joseph Oxley, 1784-1828, considered to be one of the greatest explorers and early pioneers of Southern Queensland. Ls. Labor hold. Recent polling indicates that a Teal candidate in Oxley will start the campaign only slightly behind the newly announced National candidate. Dennis Atkins reported that the LNP had faint hopes earlier in the year of winning Blair. 2022 Federal Election Candidates Forum - Oxley When there is effectively no opposition to decisions being made, there is a growing awareness that any alternatives lie outside the duopoly. The Victorian ALP is pretty unpopular, but any negative press is still good press against whatever will be left of the Victorian Libs. Disorder can be creative, & order can become uninteresting. Neumann is one of Labors worst MPs. . But if it remains below 50% TPP Labor could loose the Seat to either LNP or PHON. Is that so? (Click on polling place for results), Despite major changes in boundaries, Oxley has remained a relatively safe Labor seat compared to Labor's two-party preferred vote across Queensland. Geography I am not a party hack please dont use that label please, I am interested in politics as much as you are, as much as everyone here is, We are entitled to have our own opinions without attacking one another and thats how it should be. McDermott was part of . Wont that diminish the main electoral threads ? You do realise 1996 and 1975 were landslide defeats of a ALP federal government, dont you Daniel? Labor doesnt have a huge majority but there are some Queensland seats up for grabs in 2025. And for all of winediamond deriding of senior state Ministers in Labor (Cameron Dick, Steven Miles etc) they still continue to easily spank their state LNP opponents every election. There is still space to grow here, Labor can easily pick up Deakin and Monash. Why do juries view crime scenes like the Murdaugh estate?,Jurors in Alex Murdaugh's murder trial will get a chance to see for themselves the rural hunting estate where his wife and son were killed. Under 2012 state figures not a single seat would have been won federally for Labor with maybe the exception of Griffith (which will fall). Blair is an old style ALP seat with some rural areas. Labor's vote ranged from 40.7% at the Good News Lutheran School in Middle Park to 78.9% at St Mark's Catholic Primary School in Inala. The premier visiting Tokyo certainly wont help Labor either, It isnt an important trip, I dont care about the Olympics being held here it isnt important as pandemic recover. Now federal senators are . You're using Internet Explorer, some features might not work. Labor will probably hang on, but if the political realignment of blue collar voters towards the LNP continues they may well lose this sear. LDP, UAP and PHON have candidates already. The Regional population 2020 2021 Financial Year report, released this week, highlights Ripley, in Blairs south, growing by 19.4% an estimated 1,889 additional residents in a pandemic year. I would have thought as a Labor cheerleader that you would have had some interest in getting rid of timeservers, & lackeys ? Electorate profile. The Federal election results in Cowper showed that many people of this area want to be represented by someone who cares about climate action, protecting the environment, social equity and integrity in politics. Dont be fooled because Albanese has absolutely no appeal up here. Booths have been divided into five areas. Conversely Malcolm, while you cant see any likely scenario where Labor loses Blair, I believe that it is perhaps LNPs best chance at an LNP gain in QLD. Customer Service Representative, Daycare Teacher, Community Service Officer and more on Indeed.com Senator for Queensland. Oxley had a long history of being held by the Labor Party but was lost to disendorsed Liberal candidate Pauline Hanson in 1996. We acknowledge the traditional owners and custodians of country throughout Australia and acknowledge their continuing connection to land, waters and community. 2022 United Australia Party. the coalition are winning 90+ seats they might come close to 100. cheers WD, Just to clarify something. Does anybody know when the last time Labor had 5 seats or less in QLD? With the ballot papers already printed with the Liberal Partys name attached to Hanson, she gained a high profile and managed to win the seat with a large swing. Deputy Leader of the Opposition, Brisbane City Council from 2008 to 2012. We haven't announced any federal election candidates in your area. 2. Well we all know who is going to win this fight Mother Dick !!. I see you say ALP aim to hold on here on other pages. It wouldve been more useful picking somebody from WA or Victoria but I suppose there wasnt many options left anymore. Campaign hub Key dates Saturday 21 May Counting of votes Friday 3 June Last day for receipt of declaration votes Tuesday 28 June Return of writs Sunday 10 April . Select 'Federal electorate'. This allowed Pauline Hanson to fill the void in the region, elected in Oxley (which at the time encompassed a lot of Blairs boundaries). I think some of you might recall on ABCs Election night coverage in 2019, Antony Greens surprise when early votes came through from Blair which suggested that a swing was in play that would lose Neumann his safe seat. [1] Why do we have problems with the Murray-Darling system running dry, and dryland salinity? If you have any questions please contact Leila Stewart at mail@gscc.com.au or +61 434035020. Couldnt agree with you more. Polls dont decide elections voters do. 2019 result Both of these industries were heavily unionised throughout much of the 20th century, the strong connection between Labor and the unions was a healthy pipeline of votes directly to Labor from their blue-collar base. I would point to divisions like Chisholm or Bennelong as similar divisions in other states which are viable for the Coalition with an established Chinese Australian community. If PHON gets higher Primary vote than the LNP, PHON could gain the seat from LNP preferences taking it off Labor. Oxley covers the southwestern suburbs of the City of Brisbane and eastern parts of the City of Ipswich. Member of the Speaker's Panel from 4.8.2021 to 11.4.2022. 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